Mon. Dec 6th, 2021



The English Premier League season rolls on with a full slate of Matchday 5 action between Friday and Sunday. For the first time this season the impact of European midweek play will be felt in lineup selections across the matches. 

The moneyline, over/unders, spreads and both-teams-to-score odds are outlined below for each match. Those are followed by a list of recommended best bet selections, including this list of favorites:

  • Chelsea clean sheet: +115
  • Watford Asian Handicap pick’em: +150
  • Wolves -1.5 spread shots on target: -120
  • Leeds win/tie + over 2.5 goals: +100

MORE: How to watch English Premier League matches

Odds courtesy of DraftKings and updated as of Sept. 17.

Moneylines

Match Home Win Draw Away Win
Newcastle vs. Leeds +205 +265 +130
Wolverhampton vs. Brentford -115 +230 +390
Burnley vs. Arsenal +290 +245 +100
Man City vs. Southampton -650 +800 +1500
Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace -475 +600 +1200
Norwich City vs. Watford +120 +240 +240
Aston Villa vs. Everton +140 +240 +200
West Ham vs. Man United +350 +300 -130
Brighton vs. Leicester +170 +220 +180
Tottenham vs. Chelsea +400 +280 -140

Over/Under

Match Over 2.5  Under 2.5
Newcastle vs. Leeds -160 +125
Wolverhampton vs. Brentford +140 -175
Burnley vs. Arsenal +105 -130
Man City vs. Southampton -245 +190
Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace -200 +160
Norwich City vs. Watford +110 -135
Aston Villa vs. Everton -105 -120
West Ham vs. Man United -150 +120
Brighton vs. Leicester +110 -135
Tottenham vs. Chelsea +105 -130

Spreads

Home Team Away Team
Newcastle +0.5 (-145) Leeds -0.5 (+130)
Wolves -0.5 (-115) Brentford +0.5 (+100)
Burnley +0.5 (-115) Arsenal -0.5 (+100)
Man City -1.5 (-210) Southampton +1.5 (+185)
Liverpool -1.5 (-150) Crystal Palace +1.5 (+130)
Norwich -0.5 (+120) Watford +0.5 (-135)
Aston Villa -0.5 (+145) Everton +0.5 (-160)
West Ham +0.5 (+115) Man United -0.5 (-130)
Brighton -0.5 (+170) Leicester +0.5 (-195)
Tottenham +0.5 (+120) Chelsea -0.5 (-140)

Both Teams to Score

Match BTTS – Yes BTTS – No
Newcastle vs. Leeds -180 +140
Wolverhampton vs. Brentford +120 -155
Burnley vs. Arsenal -115 -115
Man City vs. Southampton +125 -165
Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace +110 -145
Norwich City vs. Watford -110 -115
Aston Villa vs. Everton -130 +100
West Ham vs. Man United -145 +115
Brighton vs. Leicester -120 -110
Tottenham vs. Chelsea +100 -130

MORE: Champions League odds, futures and betting favorites

Premier League Best Bets

Newcastle United vs. Leeds United

  • Date: Fri, Sept. 17
  • Time: 3 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBCSN, Universo
  • Streaming: fuboTV

Leeds win or tie + Over 2.5 goals: +100

These are the two teams with the highest expected-goals-against in the entire league and now Leeds will also be without its suspended center back Pascal Struijk. Goals are clearly expected (both-teams-to-score is priced at -180), but it’s the sophisticated patterns and combinations of the Marcelo Bielsa attack that should come out on top against an inferior Newcastle side.


Wolverhampton vs. Brentford

  • Date: Sat, Sept. 18
  • Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
  • TV: NBCSN, Universo
  • Streaming: fuboTV

Wolves -1.5 spread shots on target: -120

Wolves have compiled an average of 4.75 shots on target per match, compared with Brentford’s figure of 2.25. Wolves clearly have the better squad and the more talented attackers, and their play thus far should have yielded more than a mere three points: Their +3.2 expected goal difference after four matches is third best in the Premier League after Liverpool and Manchester City. After last week’s breakthrough win, Wolves won’t let a home match against a defensive Brentford team slip them by.


Burnley vs. Arsenal

  • Date: Sat, Sept. 18
  • Time: 10 a.m. ET
  • TV: NBCSN
  • Streaming: fuboTV

Burnley double chance (win or draw): -120

Despite all the Mikel Arteta positivity, it’s too early to say that Arsenal has turned a corner despite eking out the victory against a defensive Norwich City last time out. There’s nothing like a trip to Turf Moor to knock you back down to earth. Sean Dyche’s team is fiercely competitive at home, and although it failed to win its previous two home fixtures, the margins have been narrow and the combined expected goal difference (-0.2) tells the story. Burnley will go into this game feeling it can out-muscle and physically intimidate a young Arsenal team that might not yet be ready to start midfielder Thomas Partey from the opening whistle.


Manchester City vs. Southampton

  • Date: Sat, Sept. 18
  • Time: 10 a.m. ET
  • TV: USA Network, Universo
  • Streaming: fuboTV

Manchester City -2 Asian Handicap: -135

Manchester City will experience a very different game compared with the wide-open midweek 6-3 win against RB Leipzig in the Champions League. Southampton knows how to frustrate teams, but Man City is a patient side in possession and especially with Kevin De Bruyne and Phil Foden back healthy, the home team will find a way to create a multitude of chances. The -2 spread bet on Man City is a push if Pep Guardiola’s men only win by two.


Liverpool vs. Crystal Palace

  • Date: Sat, Sept. 18
  • Time: 10 a.m. ET
  • TV: none
  • Streaming: Peacock

Both teams to score: +110

It usually takes time for Patrick Vieira teams to find their groove, but Crystal Palace looked like a team that was already comfortable in its own skin in the 3-0 win against a Tottenham team that was reduced to 10 men. Vieira’s players will not win the match against Liverpool — and there’s a possibility that it could get ugly — but they’ll be unafraid to express themselves and should be good enough for a goal. Liverpool has only conceded once in league play this year, but its expected-goals-against in four matches is 4.2.


Norwich City vs. Watford

  • Date: Sat, Sept. 18
  • Time: 10 a.m. ET
  • TV: none
  • Streaming: Peacock

Watford Asian Handicap pick’em: +150 (draw = push)

These teams have two of the three lowest expected goals in the Premier League, but both teams have faced superior opposition, including Norwich having to run through the likes of Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal and Leicester City to start the season. This will be a matchup of equals in a battle to avoid relegation. As the home team, Norwich will be expected to take more chances in attack, which will expose it defensively. Watford have the weapons to capitalize and it did so last year in their visit to Norwich in the second division. The Asian Handicap pick’em is a “draw no bet” with slightly better odds.


Aston Villa vs. Everton

  • Date: Sat, Sept. 18
  • Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBC, Universo
  • Streaming: fuboTV, Peacock

Richarlison any time scorer: +185

Without Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who’s out because of injury, Richarlison will lead the Everton forward line and he should have more space in which to operate than in the match against Burnley. His best scoring stretch last season came as a center forward with four straight games with a goal (Feb.-March 2021), and this season he has help. If wingers Demarai Gray and Andros Townsend can continue their strong start to the campaign, Richarlison should be on the end of a handful of Everton chances in this game, especially if the Toffees can showcase their transition game.


West Ham vs. Manchester United

  • Date: Sun, Sept. 19
  • Time: 9 a.m. ET
  • TV: NBCSN, Telemundo
  • Streaming: fuboTV

West Ham 1st half Asian Handicap pick’em: +195 (draw = push)

West Ham have two fewer days of rest after their European midweek road match compared with Manchester United, but manager David Moyes subbed out and rested other players to field a strong enough lineup that will give Man United trouble. His biggest issue will be the loss of starting center forward Michail Antonio to suspension. If anything, it could make West Ham a bit more unpredictable in its first test of the season against a top side.

MORE: Manchester United 2021-22 season match schedule

Manchester United is the better team on paper, but you wonder whether any doubt will begin to creep in after their loss to Young Boys and the questions surrounding manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. It could take the Red Devils the entire first half on the road to gain their bearings against a hard-nosed Moyes team.


Brighton vs. Leicester City

  • Date: Sun, Sept. 19
  • Time: 9 a.m. ET
  • TV: none
  • Streaming: Peacock

Both teams to score – NO: -110

Brighton and Leicester are in the lower half of expected goals and shot creation thus far this Premier League season, partly because of talent limitations (Brighton) and tactical approach (Leicester). The Foxes are typically a counterattacking team on the road and can defend a lead (22 wins the last 25 times they’ve taken a lead in the EPL). Brighton also registered the fifth most clean sheets last season under its current manager (12) with Leicester right behind at 11. Lastly, since last season, half of Brighton’s home matches in all competitions have seen one team fail to score, including two out of two this year.


Tottenham vs. Chelsea

  • Date: Sun, Sept. 19
  • Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
  • TV: none
  • Streaming: Peacock

Chelsea clean sheet: +115

The Chelsea clean sheet odds are too good to pass up when you’re talking about the best defensive team in the Premier League (one goal allowed in four matches, and it came from the penalty spot) with two extra days of rest and the return of N’Golo Kante, who will be available. Tottenham could also be in for a major lineup shuffle: Heung-min Son didn’t play in midweek and attackers Lucas Moura and Stephen Bergwijn are potential absences depending on the state of their injuries picked up in Thursday’s Conference League match.





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